Analyzing Joe Biden’s Victory in the 2020 U.S. Elections

Jeo Biden's Victory in 2020

The results of the US presidential elections were the ‘most sought-after‘ results not just in the U.S. but around the globe. To the supporters of the US Democratic Party and its ideologies around the world, it was indeed great news. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. defeated Donald Trump to become the 46th U.S. President. Biden’s running mate, California senator, 56-year-old Kamala Harris became the first-ever Black and Indian-American woman to serve as a Vice President.

Joe Biden’s victory was confirmed after the Associated Press, NBC, and CNN showed him winning Nevada and Pennsylvania and attaining more than 270 Electoral College votes which are otherwise needed to secure the presidency. The President-elect addressed the nation at 8 p.m. New York time at Wilmington, Delaware.

USA Presidential Election Results 2020

I am honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me and in Vice President-elect Harris,” said the president-elect in a statement. “In the face of unprecedented obstacles, a record number of Americans voted. Proving once again, that democracy beats deep in the heart of America.” He also pledged, “to be a President who seeks not to divide but to unify. Who doesn’t see Red and Blue states, but the United States.”

However, Trump is not ready to accept the outcome calling the overall process fraud and foul play. According to him, “it’s far from over” and he refuses to concede and sites unspecified pending lawsuits. It is also reported that there has been a split between Trump’s fellow Republicans supporting his refusal to concede or congratulating Democrats’ win.

UPDATE: As of Jan 15, 2021, Donald Trump has been officially impeached and he gets the dubious tag of being the first U.S. President in history to be impeached twice. Trump was first impeached on Dec 18, 2019, by the U.S. House of Representatives by adopting two articles of impeachment namely, abuse of power, and obstruction of Congress. However, the U.S. Senate acquitted Trump of all charges on Feb 5, 2020.

 

Harris to be Key Advisor

Source: WHYY PBS

Kamala Harris, a California senator, and the very same state’s former Attorney General played a major role in the Democrats’ victory by drawing younger and minority voters to the campaign. She has been promised by president-elect Biden that she would have the same access to The Oval Office that he did as Vice President. He has also promised her that she would be the last one to offer advice after a meeting. If Biden, who will turn 82 in the year 2024, decides not to seek a second term in the office, then she is almost certain to run again.

A closer look at the Key States that flipped in Biden’s Favor

To assure victory, Joe Biden had to flip a few states that went to President Trump in the 2016 elections. Here’s a quick look at how it happened.

Pennsylvania (Number of electoral college votes: 20)

Pennsylvania was long considered a potential “tipping-point state”, or in other words the state where victory could determine the outcome of the entire presidential election. Although it was pretty much obvious, Mr. Trump jumped to an early lead but Mr. Biden clawed back slowly and eventually overtook Trump as more and more absentee ballots were counted. In particular, Mr. Biden showed strength in the suburbs around Philadelphia, an area that had been trending red in 2016 and has only grown blue ever since. Mr. Biden thus managed to flip back the state into the Democratic column with 37K more votes than Mr. Trump.

Michigan (Number of electoral college votes: 16) and

Wisconsin (Number of electoral college votes: 10)

There’s a need for a clear cut strategy in every field. Looking back in hindsight four years ago, Mr. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win either Wisconsin or Michigan in decades when he defeated Mrs. Clinton by a rough margin of 33k votes in both the states combined. So it was pretty much obvious from the very beginning that Mr. Biden and his team to focus on rebuilding the democratic “blue wall” in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Their strategy paid off, as the support in Wisconsin’s cities and suburbs played a role in the blue team’s victory.

In Michigan, about 66% of the predominantly white counties that backed Trump in 2016 voted in Biden’s favor. All in all a greater share of voters in those counties backed Mr. Biden than they supported Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

Traditional States Retained by Biden

Minnesota (Number of electoral college votes: 10)

Minnesota proved to be quite a battlefield where both the red and the blue teams fought neck to neck. However, in the long run, Mr. Biden maintained a comfortable lead and polling there ended up being pretty much spot on.

Nevada (Number of electoral college votes: 06)

Nevada seemed liked a  “nail-biter”  from an electoral frame of reference, as it took days to decide. Like Mrs. Clinton, he did it by winning Clark and Washoe Counties, which amount to 85 percent of the state’s total votes.

New Hampshire (Number of electoral college votes: 14)

New Hampshire had been considered competitive by “The Cook Political Report” as it was tightly contested in 2016. Nonetheless, Mr. Biden won handily by seven percentage points and the race was called relatively quickly.

 

So what could have been the Primary Cause of Biden’s victory?

Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

Ultimately, one could state that Coronavirus was the iceberg that sunk Trump’s cocksure ship of the second term. Trump’s continuous and unreasonable verbal attacks on leading health experts of the country even after his bout with the virus reflected poorly not only on social media but on the polls as well. While he led a series of rallies with unmasked supporters, Biden urged his fellow Americans to give heed to the advice of the scientists and medical experts by maintaining social distance and wearing masks. Biden, thus, was able to paint a picture of a responsible leader in the eyes of the common people.

Trump had well displayed his immaturity by resorting to cheap name-calling of his opponents. In 2016, he came up with “Crooked Hillary” and this time he came up with a derisive name for Biden, and that is “Sleepy Joe”. Unlike Hillary Clinton, whose campaign was overshadowed by controversy over the handling of her emails while holding the office of the Secretary of State, attempts by Trump’s associates to smear Biden as corrupt fell flat.

What Biden’s victory could mean?

Joe Biden’s victory in this 2020 presidential election could usher in a dramatic shift in America’s attitude towards the world. But the question arises, will it restore normalcy into the chaotic world?

The Democratic candidate who will take office in January 2021, has promised that the world will be engulfed in a safe pair of hands. He has vowed to be friendlier to the American allies and tougher on autocrats. A lot has changed since Biden held the office of Vice President under the Obama Administration.

Several world leaders including Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, China’s President  Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un exploited Trump’s vanity and taken a mouthful of every opportunity that well suited their needs. On the contrary, Biden promises to be different and reverse some of Trump’s more controversial policies including that on climate change, and to work more closely with the allies.

On China, he says he is going to continue Trump’s tough norms on trade, theft of intellectual property, and coercive trade practices by co-opting rather than bullying allies as Trump did. While on Iran, he promises Tehran will have a way out of sanctions if it comes in compliance with the nuclear deal he oversaw with Obama, but Trump ditched. As far as NATO is concerned, he is already trying to rebuild confidence by vowing to strike fear in Kremlin. Unfortunately, the execution of his foreign policy won’t be that simple. Biden now risks running into a group of needy friends all keen to right perceived wrongs.

To make a sense of how difficult this will be, imagine his plan to contain Iran in a new multinational nuclear deal to replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump junked. How will Biden convince the UK, Germany, and France? – who invested boundless energy into supporting the US to create the original deal — to join him in starting again?  And that’s before he considers the complication of getting Russia and China on his side again, as he and Obama did in 2015. China, for one, is unlikely to go along with a new Iran deal until the US makes concessions in the South China Sea and over trade. As one can see a plethora of hurdles fall along the road, this may make the road to the White House appear in retrospect as the easiest part of the entire journey as a President.

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